Monday, March 24, 2014

- Not since the Swedish krona started to float in the autumn of 1992, the pound has been so weak as


- Not since the Swedish krona started to float in the autumn of 1992, the pound has been so weak as now. On Tuesday recorded its lowest level against the crown at around 9.78. It can be compared to the level during the crisis in the early 90's, when the pound also was slightly koals below the 10.00 kronor. And experts believe that a weaker pound has entrenched for a long time to come.
- We believe that it will continue downward. Our forecast is at 9.77 against the crown during the next six months. Growth prospects for the UK looks worse which means that investors no longer see the pound sterling as a safe haven, says Nordea's chief economist Annika Winsth.
The main reason for the weakening of the pound, according to Annika Winsth, is that the market is now beginning to take more risk. The British pound has, like the dollar, has been a safe haven but the problems with government finances remains, which pushes the currency.
- Prime Minister David Cameron's talk of a referendum on the EU has also been interpreted as negative from a financial perspective. The market appears to also consider the fact that the Bank of England has a new boss who arrived with little more dovish signals including inflation. All this is pound the drum, said Winsth who believe that the development of the British currency is aimed only at the end of 2013. Nordea expects a level of 10.36 kronor.
2009 topped koals the pound around 13 crowns koals against the Swedish krona and have since fallen sharply. koals Richard Falk Pour which is currency strategist at SEB believes that the pound will be closer to 9:50 the next few months.
- The pound has had a problem but as a result of the euro crisis appeared pound throughout last year as a better option. koals The risk that the euro will cease to exist today are much smaller and the flow of capital towards the euro area has increased again. koals According to Richard koals Falk Pour strives UK while rebalancing of the economy, koals from consumption-driven growth to more exports and investment.
- One way is of course to have a weaker currency and it has probably also been a part of the objective of the monetary policy of the central bank have pushed in recent years. But they have been less successful here.
- Small businesses have a more traditional method of production and costs in Swedish kronor, but revenues in foreign currencies. A stronger exchange puts further pressure on margins in those cases, he says. According to Annika Winsth the question is how much stronger krona Swedish exporters cope.
- The crown is now at levels that are significantly different koals than those we have seen in the past ten years. We believe that Swedish companies can manage this in the current situation but it will be tough on the margin. But we are going down to the levels of 8.20 and 8.30 against the euro, for example, it will be a matter for the Riksbank, she says.
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